Slight decline in militant attacks after TTP Ceasefire: PICSS

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Despite the ceasefire by TTP, there was no significant decline in militant attacks in the country as Baloch militants and ISIS stepped up their violent activities.

The security situation in Pakistan has slightly improved in November compared with October but the overall pattern of violence shows the average number of attacks remained at par with May, June, and July.

Militancy fell considerably after the ceasefire with TTP as militant attacks fell spontaneously from a total of 33 incidents in October to a total of 24 incidents in November. Thus resulting in a 27% decrease in militant attacks during the month of November 2021 alone. This has been a worrying factor, as with the ceasefire with TTP being still in motion, the number of attacks still did not face a drastic decrease as compared to last month. According to the statistics released by Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS), in these 24 reported incidents, a total of 24 casualties occurred, of which 15 security personnel and 9 civilians were killed. Meanwhile, 33 people were injured as a result of these militant attacks, out of which 4 were security force personnel and 29 civilians. Thus, the death toll also dropped by a significant 33% and the injured count also fell by 5.7% compared with October.

According to statistics reported in the PICSS database, the highest number of militant attack incidents, a total of 11 incidents; were reported from Balochistan. In these incidents, seven civilians and seven security forces personnel were killed. On the other hand, twenty-five people were injured out of which 3 were security forces personnel and 22 were civilians. The tribal areas of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province (former FATA region) followed with a total of 7 reported militant attacks in which six security forces personnel were killed and five civilians were injured. The pattern shows that due to ceasefire militant attacks declined in tribal districts of KP (former FATA) but increased in Balochistan. It is also observed that in the wake of TTP’s ceasefire, ISIS-K stepped up its activities in tribal districts. Four incidents were reported from the main KPK. One incident each was reported from Sindh and Punjab, where two civilians from Sindh and one civilian from the Punjab region were killed.

The highest number of deaths (14), as well as the highest number of injured civilians (22), were reported from Balochistan. The most preferred type of attack was improvised explosive devices (IEDs), 6 IED attacks were conducted in Balochistan in the month of November, while in the tribal districts of KP (former FATA region) and the KPK region the militants preferred guerilla attacks and target killings.

After the ceasefire between the government and the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), militancy has decreased significantly in the erstwhile FATA region which was the pinnacle of militancy in the month of October. However, erstwhile FATA still recorded seven such incidents, the group suspected to be responsible for two of these attacks was ISIS-K. Meanwhile, the Baloch Liberation Front (BLF) remained the most active militant group responsible for three militant attacks in Balochistan and the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) followed suit with two attacks.

The security forces conducted 14 counter-terrorism operations in the month of November 2021, in which two security forces personnel and two militants were killed. Amongst these, the highest number of militants killed was 4 militants that were killed during operations in Balochistan. Meanwhile, seven militants were arrested during operations in Sindh, 3 during operations in Punjab, 2 from the KPK region, and only one arrest was made in the Balochistan region

The FATA region and Balochistan were, yet again, the most afflicted provinces in the month of November 2021. No suicide attacks were reported nationwide.

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