PICSS Annual Security Assessment Report 2015

Job Well Done………………But Half-PICSS Annual Security Assessment Report 2015

The year 2015 witnessed substantial improvement in security situation across the country as compared to past few years. There were 1901 overall incidents of anti-state violence by militants and counter-insurgency operations by the state in which 3368 people were killed including 2312 militants, 641 civilians, 382 security forces personnel and 33 pro-government Razakars while 1774 others were injured including 994 civilians, 516 security forces personnel, 250 militants, and 14 pro-government Razakars. 6392 suspected militants, their handlers, and supporters were arrested by the security forces while 8 people were kidnapped by the militants. Among the total deaths, almost 69 percent were militants, more than 19 percent civilians, more than 11 percent security forces personnel and almost one percent was pro-government Razakars. Among those injured 56 percent were civilians, 29 percent security forces personnel, 14 percent militants and less than one percent was pro-government Razakars. In terms of deaths during 2015, militants were on the receiving end while the civilians were the worst sufferers in terms of injuries. Monthly graph of deaths and injuries is given in Figure-1 while provincial/regional distribution of overall incidents and break up of overall incidents (SFAs and MAs) is given in Figure-2 and
Table-1, respectively.

As compared to year 2014, there has been 33 percent decrease in overall number of incidents with 37 percent reduction in deaths (with 41 percent decrease in SFPs killings, 59 percent decrease in killing of Razakars, 32 percent decrease in militants deaths, and 48 percent reduction in civilian deaths) and 55 percent reduction in overall injuries (with 42, 77,51 and 60 percent reduction of injuries caused to SFPs, Razakars, militants and civilians,respectively). Since overall figures contain deaths/injuries resulting from both, security forces actions and militant attacks, this data will not be used for regional/ provincial analysis of security situation. Instead, militant activities in each region/ province will provide the basis for assessing security situation in those areas, which is covered in depth in the Section “Provincial Security Profile”.Although the number of incidents might be higher yet the number of causalities and injuries has returned to the status that of 2008 when new era of militancy started after Lal Masjid Operation in 2007. As it was projected in PICSS Annual Security Assessment Report 2014, military actions and measures adopted under National Action Plan post-APS attack, security situation in the country would improve but the militant activities would not completely diminish as the measures adopted were more focused on eliminating militants instead of militancy since the measures adopted mostly fell in the domain of hard measures. Thus, this reduction in violence in 2015 can be attributed to continued military offensive against militants in tribal areas and country wide intelligence based operations (IBOs) that badly damaged urban networks of the militant outfits. However, continued violence in the country, albeit of comparatively lessor scale, suggests that militants are yet to be completely neutralized and they are able to plan and execute attacks intermittently.

One of the most worrying trend of the year was increasing footprints of Daesh/ ISIS particularly in urban areas with increasing threat of educated, well-off youth (both men and women) being attracted to Daesh. Although there is no organized presence of the militant outfit but there are elements who have either joined the ISIS or having sympathies with ultra-violent Middle Eastern group.